Energy.
Grid, oil, gas, and transition tech — the supply curve is a graph.
Energy systems span physical infrastructure, commodity flows, and policy regimes — and the fragility points sit at the seams. A single LNG terminal, a single specialist transformer factory, a single straits transit can decide the supply curve for a region. The seam between sectors (gas into power, mining into transition tech) is where the cascade starts.
Risk is usually modeled in compartments: fuel risk in one team, grid risk in another, offtake-counterparty risk in a third. The interactions — the joint shock that hits all three — aren't priced into capital decisions, even though those are the events that actually move the book.
Transition adds a second graph on top of the first: critical minerals, refining capacity, battery and electrolyzer manufacturing, charging infrastructure. The transition graph has its own single-source nodes and its own jurisdictional hazards, mostly distinct from the legacy graph.
Manifold ingests the physical asset graph (generation, transmission, fuel logistics, refining, transition manufacturing) and the commercial layer above (offtake counterparties, regulatory regimes, sanction and export-control envelopes). Edges encode capacity, contractual obligation, and policy dependency.
PEARL runs counterfactuals on named scenarios (this strait is closed; this transformer factory loses 12 months of output; this jurisdiction adds export controls on a critical mineral). PARETO simulates the cascade. SPIRTES surfaces structural dependencies operating data implies.
Capital allocation across upstream, midstream, and transition assets is scenario-driven, but the scenarios are hand-built each cycle and don't compose into a coherent fragility view.
Configurable causal graph spanning the asset book. Tail-depth simulation under joint commodity, regulatory, and infrastructure shocks.
Fuel risk, grid risk, and offtake risk are each modeled in isolation. The interactions — the joint shock that hits all three — aren't priced into capital decisions.
Integrated graph view; ΩF per asset under joint shocks. Counterfactual on dispatch and offtake-counterparty failure.
Vulnerability assessments rarely cross sector boundaries. Strategic-stockpile sizing and decisive-node identification depend on a graph the office doesn't have.
Cross-sector graph. Irreplaceability + cascade ranking. Scenario simulation over import-cutoff and infrastructure-loss events.
Run Manifold on a energy graph.
Trial accounts come pre-loaded with a curated dataset. Or request an invite to bring your own graph.
