Causal intelligence
for critical systems_
Manifold maps, scores, and stress-tests fragility across the world's most consequential networks — supply chains, infrastructure, capital flows, and geopolitical structure.
If this node fails, 37 downstream nodes lose function. Try this on your own graph ›
Find your domain. Each one explains the problem Manifold solves for it — in plain terms, before any of the math.
Foundries · fabs · advanced materials
Power · water · ports · telecom · rail
Trade flows · sectoral GDP · exposure
Banks · settlement · sovereign credit
Grid · oil · gas · transition tech
Sanctions · conflict · export controls
Research infra · instrumentation · talent
Reinsurance · specialty lines · ILS · cat
Discover the causal topology of a critical system from observational data.
Quantify Ω-Fragility for every node across five canonical pillars.
Counterfactual failures, cascade simulation, tail-risk statistics.
What your analyst sees 4 seconds after flagging TSMC Arizona-1.
Critical single-source. A 90-day outage cascades to 37 downstream nodes — including 4 of the top 5 positions in the mobile and accelerated-compute book.
Without Manifold: 2–3 analyst-days to assemble. With Manifold: this screen.
Each pillar is scored 0–10. Composite ΩF is a weighted average under one canonical weighting, fixed across every domain — so a 7.0 on a supply chain is directly comparable to a 7.0 on a power grid. What changes per domain is the vocabulary, not the math.
Live 0–100 system fragility index. Rises with aggregate shock severity and depleted buffer, and drives the regime band (STABLE → CRASH) in the Ω monitor.
Days from the current buffer to systemic failure — the operational window for response. 365 nominal, compressing toward 3 at breach.
Request access to Manifold.
Trial accounts run for 48 hours with a curated dataset. Authorized accounts are issued by invite.
