Economic.
Trade flows, sectoral GDP, and the exposure hidden in macro aggregates.
Macro aggregates — sectoral GDP, trade balances, headline employment — smear over the structural fragility underneath. A sector grows three percent in print while one node in that sector quietly carries half its productivity, and when that node moves, the print finally agrees, six months late.
Index-weighted exposure isn't structural exposure. A portfolio that looks balanced by sector or geography can be highly concentrated in the underlying graph — through a single processor, a single trade route, a single financing channel. Standard factor decompositions don't see it.
The events that actually move macro data are usually graph events: a port closure, a key supplier going offline, a tariff regime that re-routes a flow. Macro models that don't have the graph can't price the event in advance.
Manifold treats the economic graph as nodes for sectors, sub-sectors, trade routes, key producers, and major consumers, with edges encoding revealed dependency from trade, payment, and production data. ΩF per node makes the structural concentration explicit.
PEARL runs counterfactuals on tariff, sanction, and trade-route shocks. PARETO simulates the cascade. SPIRTES discovers dependency structure that the data implies but the official sectoral classification doesn't capture.
GDP and PMI prints lag the cascade by months. The structural fragility shows in the data only after positions have already moved.
Cascade simulation on trade-flow and sectoral graphs. Leading ΩSF / ΩSX signal before it lands in the prints.
Index-weighted exposure isn't the same as structural exposure. The nodes that carry sector-level fragility don't show up in standard factor decompositions.
Per-sector ΩF and node-level fragility under named shock scenarios. Defensible structural-risk view at the portfolio level.
Budget planning prices revenue scenarios. Exposure to a single supply or trade shock is footnoted, not modeled across the national economic graph.
ΩSF on the national economic graph, scenario library spanning trade, sectoral, and external-balance shocks.
Run Manifold on a economic graph.
Trial accounts come pre-loaded with a curated dataset. Or request an invite to bring your own graph.
